eLearning Roadtrip

The Reason THIS EDUdotcom May Not Be As Different From Last Time As You Think

If there was ever any doubt that we are in the midst of a new dot.com boom for education, that doubt was removed at this week's SXSWEDU. The event brought entrepreneurs and educators to Austin, Texas for four days of panels and a competition for education start-ups. I had the great fun of participating in a panel discussion on "Are Courses a Commodity?" with Myk Garn, Mickey Revenaugh and Michael Horn. Vanessa Dennen and I helped Curt Bonk rehearse his "cage match" answers while sharing beers and ribs at one of the Cengage social events. I enjoyed hearing Bill Gates speak to the crowd about his vision for a transformed education system. It was definitely an interesting mix of energies.

Gotta say, not all of it felt all that good. This morning's Chronicle of Higher Education led with a headline that explicitly named the tensions between entrepreneurs and educators. You can read the Chronicle report here.

While I was there, I kept hearing that THIS dot.com is different because it's about education, and because the tech is better and data will inform us and investors are smarter and the market is ready, and there are business plans and people aren't just throwing exuberant ideas at the wall and hoping that something sticks. 

Really? 

I have to say that the confident assurances that this educational technology boom is different just didn't make me feel any less skeptical. Because in the same way that there are some who really DO believes that MOOCs are the birth of online learning, it is clear that there is an entire generation of investors and entrepreneurs who really DO seem to believe that the ideas thrown against the wall of the 1990s are somehow less legitimate than some of the ideas that are currently being thrown against the wall today.

So let me tell you why this particular new EDU.dot.com isn't as different as visonaries and investors would have you believe.

Ready?

It's because no matter how new your tech is or how great the idea is, or how impressive the possibilities are, or the circumstances or the bandwidth or the platform or the operating system we won't figure out how to crack the code on transformation until we change the most important part of the equation. And that is the human factor. Eventually it comes down to people being ready to embrace the change. The ability to ride out the hype cycle and get oneself to a true plateau of productivty will all come down to the degree we can induce people to change their ways, completely rethink their practices, and help them figure out how to use new tools toys, apps and the like deliver on their promises.

The excitement around innovative technology futures for teaching and learning has energized educational researchers to think broadly and deeply about the possibilities they represent.  The venture capital communities’ recognition that education may be ready for its “Internet moment” has also generated massive interest in developing promising ideas for products with commercial consideration.

Between these two exciting arenas of exploration live equally important opportunities for transformation that come from practice-focused solutions contributing to demonstrable improvements in student engagement, faculty performance, and institutional accountability. 

People. We've got to get ready, too.

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The Burden of Knowing

Important questions can get swept aside when the rumble of excitement about future possibilities are loudest. Nowhere is this more clear than in the emerging arena of learning analytics.

The fact that we can track information just about anytime, anyplace and on any device boggles the mind with possibilities. But it also begs a few questions: Does the fact that we will eventually be able to collect, track, link, visualize, tokenize, correlate, factor or parse data pulled through APIs mean that we should? When we can collect everything, will we know what to look for when applying various analysis technique among the research protocols? Will we recognize the answers we are looking for when we see them forming in the mists or hanging from the branch of a CHAID tree?

Perhaps even more to the point - will we be able to do anything meaningful with what we find? What are we going to DO, once we know?

The notion that all learning should be tracked, or that there is value to tracking activity stream level information, or that Hadoop-like pattern-seeking technologies will serve the needs of the learning enterprise in meaningful ways, must also consider what that capability is really worth to the enterprise. 

It  presumes that once we DO recognize new patterns of loss, momentum and opportunity that we are going to be able to do something about what has been found. 

But most people do not understand how long it is going to take the learning world at large to think of data as his or her friend. To see the results of analyses as benchmarks for better understanding performance, not as red flags requiring an intervention. One can only wonder how many enterprises will be slow to collect learning data worrying that they can't afford the Burden of Knowing what their data will reveal. 

 

 

 

Funsuckers

Marc Prensky once famously accused instructional designers of sucking the fun out of learning at an EDUCAUSE Learning Initiative Conference a number of years back. As you can imagine, instructional designers were not amused. 

I was reminded of Marc's quotable quote during a recent conversation regarding the value and role of structure and specifications - or the lack thereof - for designing learning experiences. This is a more nuanced conversation than differentiating between formal and informal learning, or whether one is online or on-the-ground. This also includes things that lead to immersion, augmentation, mobility, and personalization. It inevitably leads to thoughts of learning analytics. Life-long learning tracking even.

It's almost as if today's emergent designers want to dance on ADDIE's grave and declare that ID funsucking is a thing of the past. Which brings me to my point.

It is inspiring to know that there are exceedingly passionate designers out there who want to create learning experiences that engage and inspire, helping the world see new possibilities with fresh eyes. Good on ya. The world needs you. 

But designers also must bring order to chaos. Most of us work in settings where we are mostly responsible for the practical, pragmatic applications of design principles to achieve tangible measurable results for individuals AND enterprises.  It does not matter if we believe something to be true with total heart and soul if it cannot demonstrate tangible value of those beliefs to stakeholders. Not in the future. Now.

So here is a message for the "true believers". When someone tells you than an idea is a little early for their stakeholders....it doesn't mean he or she "don't get it", nor does it necesarily mean that she or he is a pin-headed, short-sighted idiot. It simply means that the case still needs to be made.

To be clear, if it weren't for people believing that they have a better way of doing something and being willing to social the ideas ad nauseum we probably *would* still be sniffing ditto copies in our obligatory F2F training sessions.

All *I'm* saying is that visionary awesomeness on its own probably isn't enough. Sometimes it might just take a few funsuckers to spin all that straw into gold.

 

 

20 "eLearnings" From Two Months on the Road(trip)

Been a busy couple of months of elearning road-trips. From EDUCAUSE to Online EDUCA, from WCET to WICHE, from DevLearn to AECT (with a little bit of virtual Sloan-C tossed in for good measure). Literally thousands of plenaries, presentations, and poster sessions from which to choose, along with hundreds of vendor stands and trade show booths. Here are some of my big take-aways:

• Hooray and congratulations! This distance/online/elearning thing we do has tipped into mainstream consciousness. Let's give a cheer for the researchers, the teachers, the authors, the artists, the technologists, the producers, the analysts and the evaluators who have made this happen. We rock.
• We matter enough that governments want to regulate us. Congressmembers rail against us. No more flying under the radar.
• Analytics are hot, hot, hot. Learning analytics, content analytics, web analytics, engagement analytics, to name a few.
• Speaking of analytics...mathematically speaking, a learning outcome is pretty much the same as a point of sale. (Thank you, Phil Ice.)
• Second Life is dead, dead, dead. Sorry.
• Mobile is the future.  Smartphones and tablets and readers, oh, my.
• Game based learning has a long way to go before people take it seriously.
• High quality video conferencing is making a comeback.
• We may get inspired by big ideas, but we are moved to action by fear, uncertainty and dread.
• On the commercial front...Pearson intends to own our universe. Adobe has pretty much given up on us. Just about everybody wants to sell us an "analytics solution". Or a mobile app.
• People really need to quit thinking that "open" is the same as "free".
• It's a lot easier to pontificate about the importance of change than it is to do things differently.
• There is a lot of research out there. Some of it is useful. 
• Empirical evidence doesn't need to be quantitative...but it does need to be a little more robust than simply pointing to people who are doing the same things.
• Quality is rarely absolute. It's contextual and situational. It may make more sense to think about "effective practices" rather than "best practice".
• Practitioners who make big sweeping statements without doing any background work on what others may have already been doing, saying or thinking end up sounding just a little bit naive and foolish. C'mon, people...use The Google.
• On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog...but EVERYONE knows if you are not prepared.
• One can pack a lot of snark in 140 characters.
• Learning is as natural as breathing. Learning really isn't the problem. Enabling meaningful, intentional outcomes and creating experiences that engage and inspire without costing an arm and a leg and without killing our interest and enthusiam for learning is the problem. 
• Sometimes you just need to show up.

Lessons Revisited: RADAR, Pearl Harbor and Paying Attention to Evidence

One of our Sage Road Solutions LLC clients, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, is holding its biannual meeting at the BYU Hawaii campus on the island of Oahu this week. Having spent the past several days in Denver hosting the annual meeting of the WICHE Cooperative for Educational Telecommunications, known as WCET), I'm still running on Mountain time. I woke up early, so I decided to take advantage of being in this glorious location to take a walk along the beach.

About 200 yards from the hotel an historical marker notes the location of the Opana mobile RADAR site. The story accompanying the marker offers an interesting object lesson for those of us trying to bring innovative applications of technology to the learning technology metaverse.

According to Wikipedia the term RADAR was coined in 1940 by the U.S. Navy standing for radio detection and ranging. It was brand new technology, showing enough promise that pilot programs were launched to test its utility. In 1941, a number of mobile radar trucks were deployed on Oahu to keep an eye on the skies near Hickam Field.

 

Early on the morning of December 7, 1941, two soldiers stationed at the mobile radar site near Opana Point saw electronic blips of what looked like many planes approaching the island. Reporting their findings, they were told that what they were seeing were *probably* planes expected from California, and not to worry about it.  Consequently this information was never reported to those in command. Shortly thereafter, the Japanese planes detected by the RADAR bombed Hickam Field and Pearl Harbor, destroying US ships and planes, leading to the US's declaration of war on Japan and igniting US involvement in World War II.

The historical information was certainly interesting in its own right. The narrative that accompanied the marker, however, was particularly striking:

"The failure to warn the Army or Navy command in Hawaii was not a failure of the technology as much as it was a failure of organization. While the technology of RADAR functioned as intended and detected the incoming planes, there was no way to accurately assess the information and communicate this knowledge to those in command." 

So, let's fast forward to October, 2011. On Thursday of this past week the WCET team working on our Predictive Analytics Reporting (PAR) Framework project revealed some of the first findings from our ground-breaking big data project. At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, the descriptive, inferential and predictive techniques being applied to this massive data set are providing some eye-opening perspectives on variables affecting student loss and momentum. As noted in a Forbes.com online article featuring Phil Ice, our project's principal investigator (who, by the way, really hates being called "the other Dr. Phil"...so please don't) these results are going to rock the way that educational decision-makers think about everything from college admissions, student services, technology investments and even "best practices" for online learning. 

Still, I have a feeling that these "big data" results will go through a period of being pooh-poohed by decision-makers who will have a hard time letting go of null hypothesis research methods. Traditional researchers' disdain for the so-called data mining techniques associated with pattern strategy and business intelligence used in other sectors are likely to get in the way. For many traditional researchers, educational data mining is a little bit like a stupid pet trick - even though these same folks really seem to like the convenience of Amazon shopping recomendations, Netflix movie recommendations and Pandora music recommendations.

I can't help but wonder if the findings about student loss and momentum that the cracker-jack research crew are sharing will be disregarded very much in the same way that Army and Navy command dismissed the evidence that Pearl Harbor was in harm's way because the techniques are too new to be taken seriously. I just hope that we can figure out how to help people pay attention to evidence before it is too late.

 

Big Data Comes to US Higher Education

WCET, the WICHE Cooperative for Educational Technologies, today announced the successful federation of datasets from the six institutions participating in the PAR (Predictive Analytics Reporting) Framework proof of concept project, just four months after the project’s early June launch. The goal of the PAR Framework is to identify variables that influence student retention and progression and to determine the impact of various demographic data on factors influencing loss and momentum. The data will be used to explore patterns that emerge when the datasets from considerably different institutions are analyzed as a single, unified sample. 

The dataset includes over 640,000 anonymized student records and over 3 million course level records, focusing on 33 common variables. The institutions represent public/private, two-year/four-year, and publicly-funded and proprietary institutions. 

“We have been using analytics as a tool for improving student retention and progression for several years,” said Dr. Phil Ice, vice president, research & development, American Public University System, and principal investigator of the PAR Framework Project. “Unifying records from multiple schools has the potential to expose generalizable patterns that can provide guidance to institutions across the board, regardless of their internal level of analytics expertise.” Ice continued, “In higher education, no predictive analytics project has been able to use a multi-institutional sample of this size. As a researcher, having a sample size of this number changes everything.” 

The WCET member institutions engaged in the PAR Framework project include American Public University System, Colorado Community College System, Rio Salado College, University of Hawaii System, University of Illinois Springfield, and the University of Phoenix. Each institution obtained IRB (Institutional Review Board) approval. All data was anonymized and encrypted to ensure that no data are personally identifiable. 

“We had been warned that we could never find six schools willing to collaborate on something as sensitive as an institutional student and course level data federation project,” noted Ellen Wagner, WCET Executive Director. “It’s exciting to see how forward-thinking WCET member institutions are bringing the power of “big data” to post-secondary education in the US. The magnitude of the data set unprecedented and the diversity of the participating institutions will provide us granular insight into similarities and differences across higher education institutions in the for profit, public and community college segments.” 

A summary of first findings are scheduled for presentations at the 23rd Annual WCET Conference in Denver, Colorado October 27th (https://wcetconference.wiche.edu/).

Thought You Might be Interested...

...in some of the thoughts I shared with my WCET crew today about learning analytics and lessons we can learn from Moneyball. It's an extension of my eLearning Roadtrip post on the same general topic.

I suppose this gives you an idea of what is top-of-mind for me these days. Well, that and wanting to raise the bar on online learning excellence. Simple pleasures.

If you are interested in taking a look at my WCET post, please click here. 

While there, please take a look around at what the fine folks at the WICHE Cooperative for Educational Technologies are doing these days. If you happen to care about accelerating the adoption of learning technologies innovation in practice you might find that WCET is engaged in work that matters to you.

As a matter of fact....WCET's Annual Meeting is being held in Denver October 26-29. We will be sharing some of the preliminary results from our Predictive Analytics Reporting Framework, along with lots of other information about learning analytics and other emerging topics of interest to online learning and learning technology professionals. Might be a great time to come see what the WCET buzz is all about.

When I Think of the Future of Online Learning

I am attending a Summit later this week. The University Professional and Continuing Educational Association and the Association for Continuing Higher Education are co-hosting a sold out invitational meeting to consider the Future of Online Learning. Many dozens of learning leaders will be in attendence. I am looking forward to hearing what everyone has to say.

As a long-time online learning / elearning / distance learning / teletraining kinda gal, these kinds of events please me in an odd, parental sort of way. It is quite satisfying to see how over the past more than 25 years of grinding their way into teaching practice, learning technologies now routinely extend the reach of the traditional classroom. Online learning has tipped into mainstream consciousness, even if mainstream exceptance continues to be somewhat elusive. 

Since I DO have some skin in this online learning game, let me tell you some of the things I hope we will hear about during the next few days:

• I hope we will hear that it is time to move past online learning as a technological analog of the traditional college classroom.
• I want us to talk openly about getting serious about high quality, online learning experiences that scale.
• I want to hear how more students will have the opportunity to achieve the dream of a college education.
• I want to hear more about the $10,000 degree. Or the $5,000 degree. Either one.
• I want to hear how we will make sure that online students can quit being ashamed to say they got their degree from an online school.
• I want to revisit how adult learners demonstrate that the knowledge they have accrued outside the classroom is a legitimate part of competency certification.  
• I want to hear how the campus learning portal / LMS is being deployed in new and innovative ways, 
• I want to hear how online learning professionals are going to use descriptive, inferential and predictive analysis of de-identified student records to better predict when students might benefit from a bit of extra help to stay on academic track.
• I want to hear how institutions are going to make online learning experiences more compelling,  engaging, personalized and professionally relevant.
• I want to hear that there is room for informal collaborative learning moments in every student's program of study.
• I want to see more attention paid to interactive digital learning content - PDFs and digital textbooks, apps and learning objects - that students produce and publish.
• I want to understand how OER will sustain itself.
• I want to understand how mobility is changing the online learning game, and how social media bring real-time interpersonal interactivity to our conversations.
• I want to see the use of game mechanics and gamification extend our thinking about how to motivate and engage learners without turning games into the next generation of crappy elearning.

From everything I can see on that horizon these issues are all going to be part of the future of online learning. With respect, they are already part of the present. IMHO, it's time to make dealing with these issues part of our practice. Looking forward to what comes next.

 

WCET Receives Grant for Groundbreaking Higher Education Analytic Research

I am pleased to share the following good news.

WICHE, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, announced today that WCET, the WICHE Cooperative for Educational Technologies, has been awarded a $1,000,000 grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to fund an initiative to unify student data from six U.S. institutions and demonstrate the effective use of predictive analytic methods for improving student outcomes. The goal is to identify variables that influence student retention and progression, and guide decision-making that improves postsecondary student completion in the U.S.

This grant for the Predictive Analytics Reporting (PAR) Framework will aggregate data representing more than 400,000 student records from across six WCET member institutions: American Public University System, Colorado Community College System, Rio Salado College, University of Hawaii System, University of Illinois Springfield, and the University of Phoenix. Each participating institution has been exploring or implementing descriptive, inferential or predictive analytics projects on their own student data; the PAR Framework expands on this work through exploration of patterns that can be derived when the six institutional datasets are considered as a single, unified sample.

The principal investigator is Phil Ice, Ed.D., American Public University System (APUS). The project will incorporate many of the best practices and award-winning predictive analytical methods for which Phil has been recognized by the Sloan Consortium and for which project partner Dr. Vernon Smith, Rio Salado College, has won the prestigious WCET Outstanding Work (WOW) award. WCET has appointed Beth Davis, WCET, to serve as the project director.

The WICHE Cooperative for Educational Technologies (WCET) is a cooperative, membership-driven, non-profit provider of solutions and services that accelerate the adoption of effective practices and policies, advancing excellence in technology-enhanced teaching and learning in higher education. More information about WCET’s institutional membership resources, services and common interest groups can be found on here.

eBang Theory, Say "Hey" to High Quality Online Learning That Scales

Once upon a time, equity analyst Howard Block, Ph.D. wrote a report entitled The e-Bang Theory: Education Industry Overview 1999 Illuminismo, Volume 2  (San Francisco: Banc of America Securities Equity Research, Montgomery Division, September 1999). This report is the one credited with igniting the explosion of interest in financial markets that legitimized what is known today as eLearning.

In this report, Block outlined the tenets of his theory that explained why and how investing in businesses that featured technology to facilitate online learning would probably make investors and the companies in which they invested a lot of money. 

I attended a meeting at SRI International in Menlo Park, CA just after this report was released. I still remember the electricity, the "e" in the air. Probably tells you a lot about the times that everyone devoured anything from analysts that talked about investing opportunities using web technologies and the related products and services that accompany them to market, to school and to work.

In making the case that 1999 was the time for a new model of education - elearning - to appear on the horizon, Block noted that:

• "The economy is quickly becoming dependent upon human capital, which forces all of us to increase our aptitude at managing and productively employing human capital, a task incumbent upon all of our learning systems.

• "Political initiatives are inviting more businesses inside the school house door than every before in the history of public education. these initiatives include charter school legislation and voucher programs.

• "The inexorable technological revolution continuously overhauls the workplace, thereby forcing workers to treat learning as a basic part of their job description. Technology is not only a driver for more learning but it is also an enablers of electronic learning (e-learning). The intellectual demands of the economy are outstripping our capacity to satisfy it. (Block, 1999, P.3)

(Danger, Will Robinson. We seem to have slipped through a hole in the time space continuum. Isn't this the same things we are still talking about today??)

Block went on to define elearning as the convergence of the internet and education and identified 15 unique benefits associated with it:

1. Available at any time. "It's always there!"
2. Accessible from any location "I can always get to it"
3. Multimedia content: use of audio, video, interactive chat, text, etc.
4. Accommodates individual learning styles: self-paced, asynchronous collaborative, synchronous collaborative.
5. Hyperlearning as contrasted with static text, elearning has the capacity to link with the other resources (simulations, other content, study groups, etc) that can enhance the learning experience and avoid the linear learning dictated by textbooks. The self-directed nature of elearning allows hyperlearning.
6. Blindness of the learning engagement: some learners who are inhibited in a classroom may increase engagement online
7. Learner-centered learning: The learner is not a passive participant but a proactive searcher and finder of information.
8. Modularity of presentation: The content's architecture is modular, which facilitates different construction of learning design in both design and length.
9. Manageable structure: The electronic infrastructure supports managed and measurable interactions between advisers and learners
10. Ability to measure the effectiveness of the program. eLearning software empowers administrators to track performance and measures ROI. In addition, monitoring usage by user is simpler, i.e., the number of downloads per user can be measured. This helps training managers to evaluate cost-effectiveness and provides assistance with license negotiations based on estimated use.
11. Simpler data management, The rapid rate with which new learning products are introduced and older products become obsolete creates a challenge for individuals charged with updating libraries. However, if a single version of each product is kept on a host, users get instantaneous access and updated components.
12. Cost savings: provides an efficient and cost-effective model for education
13. Revenue enhancement: provides a way for campuses to expand classroom enrollments without using bricks and mortar.
14. Greater storage capacity. The Internet has so much more capacity than most physical locations or a user's hard drive. This allows learners to access more products and lets the adviser mix and match courseware activities to fit specific needs. Learners can preview presentations of different courses prior to selecting one, or they can access a specific slide from thousands.
15. Individual education programs (IEP) can be generated from a combination of the historical record of the student's prior learning (from monitored usage) and the vast data stored on the server. As student's progress, information is delivered based on what they learned and how they've performed. For example, a student would log on to the learning server and a customized course would be generated from the content data base that knows which courses the learner took, how well she did, what her job description is, what problem is most pressing. This dimension serves to focus the curriculum on skill gaps, saving organizations both time and money. A by-product of IEPs, in our view, is increased motivation from the self-centered nature of the experience.

One has to wonder if maybe our agenda for the next gen of elearning, the Web 2.0 era, should be aimed at delivering on some of these promises that Block and the investment communities were making on our behalf as long as ten years ago. Because when I think about some of the big ideas that were shared among the participants of a fantastic think tank experience I had a few weeks ago at Rio Salado College in Tempe Arizona and what we can finally do deliver on these 15 promises described above...well, I have to say, I am excited about all the new opportunities that are startiong to emerge on the horizon.

And THAT brings me to my real subject of today's blogpost.

Imagine how excited I am that one of the hottest new emerging trends that is going to rock post-secondary education is a return to High Quality. Scalable. Online. Howard Block gave us the roadmpap more than a decade ago. And now, as we all try to figure out how to navigate in what Josh Jarrett calls "The New Normal", it seems as if High Quality, Scale and Online easily fit in the same sentence. Again.

There are  initiatives on the horizon that will challenge the way we think about our practice. Hopefully give us all some tools and techniques to think about achieving our goals in creative new ways. I have to say, when I think about where  the next waves of innovation are likely to emerge in my little slice of the education ecosystem I start getting butterflies in my stomach. Excited butterflies.